Fantasy related but good info.....
SBT: Pull up a Chair
I woke up and I got dressed – knowing it was the biggest day of my life. ESPN had just called my house, and my monkey butler answered the phone and said something in the ballpark of 'no comment.' After all, he was watching his favorite movie, MVP: Most Valuable Primate, and was busy ironing my suit. I had just increased his pay to 1,000 bananas per week, so he was in a particularly good mood, too.
You see, it was the last day of negotiations, and all of the major decisions had already been made. We were just getting together for the cameras to sign into effect an historic agreement, an agreement that turned the sports and business world on its head.
It really wasn't all that hard, thinking back on it. The demand was there, and when I floated the initial idea in a well-circulated periodical of the internet persuasion – it just sort of took off.
The NFL had been in gridlock over a labor dispute, and the NBA was shortly behind – and both leagues had seen enough American apathy to feel the strength of their own leverage. Each of the major professional sports had survived a strike, and like an actuary at an insurance company, both leagues had assigned a number to the cost of fan dissent in a work stoppage. Using simple math, they were able to ascertain that it would cost less in terms of outrage during a strike, than it would to potentially lose millions at the negotiating table.
As it would go the NFL's players ended up decertifying their union in advance of a lockout, choosing to take their battle to the courtrooms, and the NBA had just wrapped up a banner season of record ratings. Reporters with sources in high-powered sports management agencies and with the NBA league offices were leaked tales of discord, setting the expectation that a work stoppage wasn't just a possibility, but that it was a probability. It wasn't that both groups wanted a stoppage, but each side had items on the list that the other wouldn't give up without a nasty fight. And after each side had staked positions so far away from the compromise point, the players and owners knew that they needed the gun to be loaded before anything would get done.
Games would need to be missed in both leagues, and revenues would need to be lost by each side, before the leaders for the fighting groups could go to their constituencies and say, 'this needs to get done.' The various compromises that had been forming for months in advance would then be authorized at the bargaining table, or depending on the legalities, in the courts – and both sides could live with what they had done, knowing they exercised their leverage to the fullest.
What they didn't count on was a sophomoric idea ruining everything for them.
An attorney from the Midwest, a certifiable fantasy basketball nut, read some of my ranting and saw what I saw. He also saw an opportunity to make a name for his law firm and formed the first ever fans union. They called it FANS, which stood for Fan Agreements and Negotiations Syndicate, and they took to the Internet for membership.
It was simple, fans pledged their membership and allowed the new entity to contact both the leagues and the players on their behalf with a simple message – we can strike too.
The group started gaining national attention and it eventually ended up with 10 million members and counting. Whereas the effort was originally intended to pressure the NBA into not having a work stoppage, it eventually ended up forming outfits for each major sport. Fans pledged their time and support, and by the power of the Internet – they coordinated their first ever strike of a sporting event. It didn't completely work, but enough people didn't show up for the message to be sent loud and clear.
FANS was in business.
So FANS leadership kept their constituency abreast of the issues and every now and again they would strike an event. They issued a set of demands to owners of all leagues, which were:
1. Lower prices for tickets, concessions, and parking
2. A fan grievance process
3. Input into many different types of league decisions
The first time the list of demands had been sent, there wasn't as much as a response from the league offices or players associations. But after the media caught wind of the upstart organization's early signs of success, and when corporations tired of shelling out big bucks for luxury suites saw it as a way to exert downward pricing pressure, it seemed like FANS was everywhere. The tipping point was when FANS striked a week's worth of events, and ultimately each league decided it was in their best interests to bring FANS to the negotiating table.
The fans finally had their day.
They got all three of their requests. Ticket prices were negotiated between all three entities and an overall cap was put on prices. And just one week after the agreement was signed by all three parties, a number of ticketholders ended up experiencing some trouble at a championship event. Like the folks who were shafted at the Super Bowl, they had their once-in-a-lifetime experience ruined by an overzealous event coordinator who had sold too many tickets. Instead of having to take the time and expense to go to court – the FANS grievance process reimbursed them and then some. And when the NFL tried to 'enhance' the schedule to 18 games, FANS told both the league and players that it was a non-starter, and thus it never happened.
By some estimates the leagues lost 10% or more of their revenue on the day the agreement was signed, simply because the fans exerted the leverage they had the whole time.
It has been a whirlwind since I published that piece, but I try to keep a level head about it. I never really wanted the fame that came with the movement, and I almost sent my monkey butler to sign the documents for me. But I realized the importance of the event, and was sure to wear my best (and only) suit. I got out of the limousine sent to take me to the ceremony and made my way to the staged-for-TV event. The lawyers for FANS, now good friends, made a few jokes before the camera light turned red as the head of the players association, the commissioner, and yours truly each signed the document like a president signs a treaty. When the press asked the commissioner why the league and players agreed to such steep demands, he begrudgingly said, "Because the fans sign our checks."
And then he smiled for fear we would take another $100 million from the pie if we didn't like his answer.
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The Step-back Three is a place where Aaron Bruski takes a look at three issues in the world of both fantasy and reality basketball. Focusing less on daily events, the idea is to take a step back from the daily whirlwind and try to make sense of things.
1. Last week's winners and losers
Thank you for indulging the first (and maybe last) use of fiction on this website, and for all your trouble it's time to unload some serious fantasy research for you guys. But first, I wanted to share with you some of the winners and losers of last week, as you'll be surprised with what you see. And while there's no clear way to incorporate all of the various formats into the mix, I think the use of an 8-cat system is probably the best way I can go. So here goes, the winners and losers with their 8-cat rank in parenthesis:
Winners
**Note the lack of a pound sign or exclamation point. We're Sheen-free around here these days.
(#7) Al Jefferson – Averaging 28.0 points, 11.8 boards, 1.8 blocks, and a 57.6% FG mark over four games last week, he is poised for a huge finish to the year.
(#10) James Harden – He averaged 16.3 points, 2.0 threes, 3.5 boards, 3.3 assists, 2.3 steals, 0.8 blocks, with a 52.4% mark from the field and a 92.9% mark from the line over four games. He may see a few minutes shaved when Kendrick Perkins gets up to speed, but he has shown enough that I'm optimistic about his chances to be a factor down the stretch.
(#12) Gerald Henderson – As shocking as it may seem, the numbers don't lie. He scored 17.5 points with 3.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks per game in four contests with a 50% mark from the field. He'll take a hit with Stephen Jackson back, but it was a banner week nonetheless.
(#13) Tyler Hansbrough – Psycho T was the only Pacer to show up this week, sporting a four-game average of 24.0 points, 7.8 boards, and 2.0 steals while shooting 59% from the field, making up for the fact that he didn't have a single block.
(#16) Serge Ibaka – He single-handedly carried the blocks category for some owners with 14 blocks over four games, and backed it up with averages of 11 points, 8.8 boards, and 1.3 steals per game.
(#19) DeMarcus Cousins – He played through a shin injury and over four games he averaged 19.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game, which made up for an atrocious 44.4% shooting mark.
(#20) Dorell Wright – Slump? Not by the numbers. His averages over four games of 16.3 points, 2.8 threes, 4.5 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.5 blocks while shooting 51% from the field still dominate in fantasy leagues.
(#22) Hedo Turkoglu – The week before he killed some owners, but this week he got his act together. He notched a four-game average of 15.8 points, 2.5 threes, 4.3 boards, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.0 blocks, with a 53.5% mark from the field, reminding us of years' past. Teammates Jason Richardson and Jameer Nelson followed him on the list at No. 23 and 24, and it's a pretty safe bet that none of the three will rank this high going forward.
Losers
**I'll try to avoid players that suffered injuries, like Andray Blatche (shoulder) who came in at No. 324 after playing just three minutes.
(#52) LaMarcus Aldridge – Listed here only because he has been an elite play all year, his 5.8 boards per game nullified what would have been a strong four-game week.
(#74) Kobe Bryant – Volume shooters have the potential to kill owners when they have bad weeks. Kobe uncorked 20 shots per game and made just 37.3% of them.
(#113) Pau Gasol – He also had a bad week shooting, making just 43.5% of his shots, but when No. 25 ranked player Andrew Bynum hit a 14.3 average on the glass, it left Gasol with just 7.0 of his own.
(#115) Rajon Rondo – With one of his three games being an extreme blowout, his bad week was augmented by the fact he hit just 39.4% of his shots and averaged just 9.0 points with 5.7 assists. He wasn't the only bad Celtic this week, as Paul Pierce showed up at No. 73 and Kevin Garnett landed No. 155.
(#142) Chris Bosh – Despite his big game against the Lakers, his two steals and no blocks over three games with a mediocre 51.3% mark from the field isn't doing the trick.
(#179) John Wall – He looks and sounds healthier, but a 32.5% mark from the field while jacking up 20 shots per game makes Brandon Jennings look like a model of efficiency.
(#209) J.J. Hickson – He makes John Wall look Nene with his 29% mark. Hickson backed that up with 7.3 points, just two steals, and no blocks over three games. Owners shouldn't panic, though, since he has shown the ability to blow up on a moment's notice.
(#241) Joe Johnson – Even with Al Horford (ankle) out for a game, he neglected to show up with just 12.7 points, 3.3 boards, and 2.7 assists with two steals and no blocks over three games. Shooting just 39% from the field was icing on the cake.
2. Shutdown Surprise – The Winners Version
No shutdown is ever completely foreseen, as guys wouldn't be on your team if you knew they were done for the year. And in the spirit of keeping you from being caught off-guard, we're going to take a look at guys that could be shut down, regardless of whether it's for the year or for just a game or two – with the final week set aside since leagues shouldn't be counting that week, anyway. Breaking it up into winning teams and losing teams, both types will have varying motivations to sit their guys, and hopefully after this, you won't be surprised when one of them makes you want to vomit.
Winning teams, and I'm including bubble teams in that designation, will be less likely to sit their players than their losing counterparts. However, should a team not be able to improve their position or care too heavily about seeding, they could lean toward sitting their guys, as could the bubble teams if they go on a losing streak.
In the East, Boston and Chicago carry a 3-game lead on Miami, while Orlando sits on an island three games behind the HEAT, and 3.5 games ahead of the Hawks. The Hawks then sit 3.5 games ahead of the Knicks, who are just a half game ahead of the Sixers, who hold a six game lead over the No. 8 Pacers. The Pacers are even with the Bobcats, and the Bucks are 1.5 games back of both, which rounds out the only teams with a real shot at the playoffs in the East. The Pistons (5.5 games back from No. 8) had a shot until John Kuester appeared to throw the season.
In the West, San Antonio has wrapped up the No. 1 seed for the most part with a seven game lead over Dallas, who is trailed by the Lakers by a half game. The Thunder are then on an island with approximately four games above and below them, with Denver, New Orleans, Portland, and Memphis trailing and a game or so separating each of that group. Phoenix, Utah, and Houston are within three games of No. 8 Memphis.
Andrew Bogut – Even if the Bucks stay in the playoff chase, he is no sure bet to make it through the rest of the year. Should they fall out of contention quickly, or go on a tear while the Pacers and Bobcats lose a bunch of games, he will be the first guy to get an early rest. You can include each of their injured players on this list, too, which are Corey Maggette (knee), Ersan Ilyasova (concussion), Drew Gooden (foot), and even Brandon Jennings could be told to take it easy on his previously injured foot.
Stephen Jackson – Hamstring injuries are already tricky, but with the Bobcats' tied for the No. 8 slot, he is probably playing on the fine line of being injured vs. hurt.
Carlos Boozer (ankle) – A notoriously slow healer, Boozer's coach also comes from the Doc Rivers School of injury assessments. One small tweak and he could land on the bench. Luol Deng's workload this season and thigh injury also come to mind, but Tom Thibodeau seems committed to keeping him on the floor.
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Al Horford (ankle) – The Hawks fit in the No. 5 slot, and have a 3.5 game cushion on both sides of them. They're not as good as the Magic, who they trail, and the Knicks might not have enough chemistry to catch them. If Larry Drew senses that progress can't be made on seeding, don't be surprised if Horford gets some time off before the customary last week.
Old guys on winning teams – Chauncey Billups (thigh), Kobe Bryant (ankle), Pau Gasol, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler (ankle), Peja Stojakovic (back), Kirk Hinrich (calf), Elton Brand (finger), Andre Iguodala (Achilles), Danny Granger (attitude), Joe Johnson, Chris Paul (just plays old nowadays), Marcus Camby (knee), and Brandon Roy (knees) are all playing for teams that are either locks or have a strong chance to make the playoffs. Despite the fact that their seeding will probably go down to the wire, all of them could be sat before the season's final week.
Young guys on winning teams – Kevin Durant, who has suffered a few ankle injuries this year, is a prime guy to get some rest in the final week, but with the Thunder sharing just about four games on both sides of them in the standings – he may see some rest in the second-to-last week, too. Nicolas Batum (ankle) could be given time to get himself right, and with Roy almost guaranteed to get rest, it's just another reason to own Wesley Matthews. Andrew Bynum is on fire right now, but his knees are still hurting him, and he should be considered a risk for the second-to-last week. Arron Afflalo's hamstring and Danilo Gallinari's toe come to mind, too, as does Kendrick Perkins' knee. Brandon Bass (knee) isn't on too many fantasy teams, but his knee may be the cause of his struggles, making him a risk.
The Big Four in Boston – While Doc Rivers won't just cede the East to the Bulls, he isn't scared of playing on the road in the playoffs. He will not hesitate to rest Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, or Paul Pierce if need be.
The Miami Big Three – Perhaps more than any other team in the league, if one goes down then they can kiss their playoff chances goodbye. And while LeBron James has shown good durability in his career, Dwyane Wade has not and Chris Bosh's ankle could use the rest.
Luis Scola (knee) – We often give extra credibility to guys who don't miss games, and Scola's history avoiding injuries has reached immortal status. Unfortunately, a serious injury doesn't step aside because of a guy's past. If he's hurt, he's hurt. We may be seeing the early signs of that with Scola, and should Houston fall out of contention, we may see them cut the guy some slack down the stretch.
Paul Millsap (knee) and Andrei Kirilenko (back) – Millsap, like Scola, is a true warrior and would play through injury if the Jazz were in dead last. Because of that, he has suffered (and played through) injuries to his entire body this season, and should the Jazz fall out of contention, he'll be the first to get a break. On the other hand, playoff status doesn't really matter to Kirilenko. He could find himself sitting out at any time between now and the end of the year, and falling out of contention just makes it more likely. Devin Harris could also be added to this list because of his history, and he was banged up this week, but overall his new environment is conducive to him playing. He has people to impress and a system to learn.
Steve Nash – His groin injury, or whatever it is, is increasingly the source of speculation and my little diatribe last Wednesday about adding Aaron Brooks is starting to make sense. Add Vince Carter (knee), Grant Hill (age), and Channing Frye (shoulder) to the list if the Suns fall out of contention.
3. Shutdown Surprise – Losers Version
This is the group of teams not mentioned above that are playing for ping pong balls. They include Detroit, New Jersey, Toronto, Washington, Cleveland, Golden State, the L.A. Clippers, Minnesota, and Sacramento. Players from these teams should be considered riskier on the whole, especially since their teams' draft positions get enhanced with every loss.
Tyreke Evans – With so many rumors about being out of shape to start the year and a general manager that said he was more 'not hurt' than 'hurt,' it's no surprise that we're all questioning whether or not he'll play. Even if you take the injury at face value, he's no lock to return to action.
Rudy Gay (shoulder) – We'll find out soon what his MRI says, and I'm starting to sense that his situation is neither bleak nor great. The "sharp pain" he's feeling during sudden movements isn't a great sign, but by virtue of the Grizzlies' playoff positioning, I'm optimistic he could return with a week or so under his belt. Should Memphis go on a prolonged losing streak, however, then any chance of his return probably goes out the window if he's less than 75% healthy.
Michael Beasley – His ankle injuries have been among the most severe we've seen this season without an actual 'break' occurring. We've long thought he needed to rest them, anyway, and that moment may come sooner than later. Add Darko to this list just for being Darko, too.
Kevin Love – We're all for cutting him some slack after 53 straight dub-dubs, but given the presence of a knee injury, we're not thrilled about the streak ending against the Warriors. Now granted, David Lee's only job that game was to keep him off the boards, but it was his 1-of-6 mark from the field that caught our eye. If there is any chance that he is causing long-term damage by playing, he will get the hook.
It's all in the wrist – Eric Gordon and Deron Williams both have serious wrist injuries, and it goes without saying that they are question marks to finish the year.
Baron Davis – Between his knee, the trade, and his grandmother's passing, he hasn't played a lot of basketball lately, and being out of shape has been his Achilles' heel. Now the rest is probably good for his knee, too, but it's a double-edge sword. Regardless, his history and the Cavs' willingness to develop Ramon Sessions are enough for him to headline this list. You can add the Cavs' other veterans to this list too, including Anthony Parker (back) and Daniel Gibson (quad, personal).
Monta Ellis – The guy has taken the literal translation of his team's namesake to heart, just a year after stepping out for over two weeks with a mysterious flu to finish the year. His workload, along with the number of times he has tweaked his ankles, his wrist, and lord knows what else – are all reasons he could get an early rest. Beyond that speculation, however, there are no indications that he will miss time.
Mo Williams – On everybody's shutdown list before the trade, he has been revitalized in L.A. That, and Blake Griffin should start charging a fee for making the PG position fun to play. The fact that I would have felt comfortable leaving him off this list speaks volumes about his situation, but his history this season is too hard to ignore.
Jose Calderon – He was banged up earlier in the year but has gotten healthier as of late, and regardless his injury history puts him on this list. Throw in the fact that Toronto would like to develop Jerryd Bayless' point guard skills, and there will be a convenient set of circumstances should Calderon develop or aggravate any sort of ailment. His teammate, Amir Johnson (ankle), has been banged up all year and also belongs on this list.
Pistons Pride – We'll see how much pride they have now that their playoff hopes are dashed. Tayshaun Prince is playing for his next contract, but his back injury could easily resurface. Tracy McGrady is no spring chicken, and also isn't one of John Kuester's favorites, so he could easily be sat down. Ben Wallace may not play again this season, though that's just speculation at this point. Now go and plug those values into your Kuester computer and let me know what it spits out.
What's in the Water in Washington – It's one part apathy and one part attitude, as these guys walk around like they've won an NBA title but they're among the league's worst. They don't hustle, they complain, and they're backed up by a number of young and hungry players highlighted by Jordan Crawford and Trevor Booker. John Wall's recent comments about getting healthier are encouraging, but weeks ago he was sporting three different injuries (knee, ankle, foot), and has sometimes shown a lack of hustle and entitlement that a rookie shouldn't show. He may think he has already earned the right to skip the final. Andray Blatche's shoulder is already a problem, and the Wizards may actually be happy to keep him off the floor. Don't get me wrong, they need him going forward, but the team plays better without him. JaVale McGee is taking plays off, but isn't injured, though he could play himself off the court if he isn't careful, and the team's corps of small forwards is a knee surgeon's dream. Josh Howard, Rashard Lewis, Maurice Evans, and Cartier Martin are all one play away from ending their years, and Nick Young (knee) has been playing banged up all season long. As a result, Crawford should be watched very closely down the stretch (or stashed).
